منابع مشابه
Forecasting Seasonal Time Series∗
This chapter deals with seasonal time series in economics and it reviews models that can be used to forecast out-of-sample data. Some of the key properties of seasonal time series are reviewed, and various empirical examples are given for illustration. The potential limitations to seasonal adjustment are reviewed. The chapter further addresses a few basic models like the deterministic seasonali...
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Periodic models for seasonal data allow the parameters of the model to vary across the different seasons. This paper uses the components of UK consumption to see whether the periodic autoregressive (PAR) model yields more accurate forecasts than non-periodic models, such as the airline model of Box and Jenkins (1970), and autoregressive models that pre-test for (seasonal) unit roots. We analyse...
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Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real...
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The sampling variance of nucleotide diversity or branch length in a phylogenetic tree constructed by any distance method provides a criterion to judge whether a deduction or an inference made from data is statistically significant. However, computation of the sampling variance is usually tedious, particularly when the number of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) or DNA sequences is large, and m...
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We propose a framework that detects the failures of a tracker using its output only (Figure 1). The framework is based on a state-background discrimination approach that generates a track quality score, which quantifies the ability of the tracker to remain on target. We define a background region around the target and split it into four sub-regions, each with the same size as the state. We then...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Monthly Weather Review
سال: 2009
ISSN: 1520-0493,0027-0644
DOI: 10.1175/2008mwr2560.1